Draft da NFL -Trust the tape. That mantra has been spoken ad nauseam throughout draft seasons immemorial, as a reminder that a player's tape is his most important attribute. However, like any other information, the tape can lie! A player can be older and dominate younger competition or play soft programming that doesn't really challenge them.
Statistics and data can also lie. A defensive back can rack up fewer pass breaks or interceptions than a teammate simply by being less targeted by opposing attacks, while a wide receiver can rack up more targets simply by playing alongside someone who requires double coverage.
You know what also lies (at least relatively speaking)? The grass on the field at Lucas Oil Stadium. No, not exactly the lawn. While this turf is likely to be very similar to the turf used in NFL stadiums, even the combined data is skewed. According to an analysis by a data scientistBud Davis,players choose to perform the drills that make them look their best and choose not to do drills that would put them in a less flattering light. What are the implications? Average times for drills like the award-winning 40-yard dash have dropped, as has the proportion of athletes participating.
Despite this, the combine provides useful information. It often helps to differentiate elite athletes who are NFL prospects from potential prospects who were content with just tape or reputation. In my Grinding the Mocks, I combined vertical and descending columns oflast year,I identified emerging prospects like Georgia running back Travon Walker, Tulsa offensive tackle Tyler Smith and Western Michigan wide receiver Skyy Moore who were impactful players for their teams as rookies. Which prospects will be prepared for big bumps to their expected draft position and key roles on their future teams? Read on to find out!
Anthony Richardson, field marshal, Florida
If Travon Walker was the clear winner of the 2022 NFL combined, then the 2023 winner has to be Florida's Anthony Richardson. Both are winners for similar reasons. As players without high levels of college production, it was known that athletics would be every player's calling card. However, what we witnessed from Richardson and Walker exceeded expectations and made them post-combination candidates for general selection honors. Richardson had the best performance by a quarterback at the NFL Combine. His speed, size and explosiveness give an idea of the kind of talent he could display if he manages to develop as a player.
Comparisons of Richardson as a player abound. optimistic (likemyself) see him as similar to Cam Newton or Josh Allen, while naysayers see him more like Jake Locker or JaMarcus Russell. No matter who you compare him to, what Richardson has done in the combined puts him in rarefied air as an athlete at halfback and is sure to intrigue many teams come the end of April.
Adetomiwa Adebawore, ER, Noroeste
Going into the combo, I didn't know that Northwest edge runner Adetomiwa Adebawore's first name translates to "crown of one", but later on, that name makes a lot more sense. He was one of the top linemen at this year's Senior Bowl, where he first appeared on the draftniks' radar by displaying indoor and outdoor versatility as a defensive lineman. With his performance in the combine, he has now become known to the rest of the wider NFL community.
No one has ever run a 40 yard dash faster than Adebawore (4.49 seconds) at a heavier weight (270 lbs). Most players would have stopped there (like my fellow Pittsburgh alum Calijah Kancey), but Adebawore kept going, putting up elite numbers in the vertical jump, wide jump and bench press. The main thing missing is height, but in Grinding the Mocks we are a "short" king (prince, but who counts). Adebawore used the draft process to the fullest, working in the second-round mid lane with the most room to grow.
Nolan Smith, ER, Georgia
They forgot about Nolan Smith like they forgot about Dre... and I don't necessarily blame them. Injured for much of his senior year in Athens, Smith sat out as Georgia repeated as national champions in January. Once healthy, Smith showed in the mix why he was in talks for a first-round pick last year along with his Bulldogs teammates who decided to turn pro after the first of what would be back-to-back championships.
This year's draft class is packed with top-tier talent and athletes in the pass-rusher position, so adding Smith back into the Round 1 mix is a boon for teams looking for pass-rusher help. Smith ran a 40-yard dash of 4.39 seconds, which is fast even given his lower weight for his position, but more importantly, he ran a 10-yard split of 1.52 seconds and turned in elite performances. in vertical and wide jumps, that he measures explosiveness more than speed. I put Smith with the Philadelphia Eagles with the 30th pick inmi primer simulacrum for Football Outsiders. It probably won't happen!
|2023 Rectification of false lifts behind the harvester|
|Name||Pos.||School||pre-mixed EDP||post-harvest EDP)||Difference|
|antonio richardson||Quarterback||Florida||12.1 (10)||3,5 (3)||+8,6 (+7)|
|Adetomiwa Adebawore||ES||Northwest||95,0 (114)||49,9 (47)||+45,1 (+67)|
|Nolan Smith||ES||Georgia||34,0 (33)||20,8 (19)||+13,2 (+14)|
Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia
Talking about those who fall is a lot less fun than talking about those who get up, and even less fun writing about those who fall bigger than most. Georgia's Jalen Carter is a global on-field football talent and is considered by draftniks to be one of the top five players in this class. Off the field, however, Carter is embroiled in legal proceedings relating to the car accident that killed Devin Willock and Chandler LeCroy, a former teammate and member of the football recruiting team, respectively.
Due to the lawsuit hanging over him due to his recklessness and lack of judgment (as well as the change of scenery at the top of the draft), Carter's stock representing the value of the draft pick has dropped more than any player since before the Match. I'm not a lawyer, but I don't need to be to know that it's not good for him to have this situation clouding his head. Even if that changes, the stigma of this incident will likely be a stain on his character in the future and could cause teams to stop recruiting him. Maybe I'm being optimistic, but Carter's stock may continue to fall.
Kayshon Boutte, WR, LSU
Kayshon Boutte started the 2022 college football season the same way his LSU Tigers did: with high anticipation followed by huge disappointment before ending with some hope for the future. That hope is likely what prompted Boutte to initially announce that he would be returning to Baton Rouge for another season, which is the cause of the gap between Boutte's mock drafts in the previous frame. However, just before the rookie declaration deadline, Boutte announced that he was giving up his eligibility and going to the draft.
A turnaround like that from a player is usually not a good sign, especially if he initially wanted to go back to school. Boutte would need a strong combination to prove he wasn't just a player whose final season in college didn't match the expected high draft position he held prior to the start of the season. Not only did he look less than six feet tall, however, Boutte performed poorly in burst drills and only ran 4.5 seconds for 40 yards, with poor splits as well. Those kinds of numbers will still get him selected, but probably not in the top 100.
Myles Murphy's is labeled a post-combined dropout less for the things he did at the combine and more for the things he didn't do in Indianapolis. Unfortunately, Murphy strained his hamstring while warming up for practice, so he didn't get the chance to show how athletically he performed against his teammates at the front running back position.
Before and immediately after the 2022 collegiate season, Murphy was considered ER2 behind Alabama's Will Anderson. However, in the time leading up to the combine, Texas Tech's Tyree Wilson (who also did not practice at the combine due to an injury sustained during the season) saw his stock grow by leaps and bounds as he beat Murphy to ER2. site and challenged Anderson to ER1. Now squarely in the mix with the next batch of quarterbacks, Murphy has a wider draft range than ever before, as the likes of Iowa's Lukas Van Ness or Georgia's Nolan Smith also vie for the chance to be the next running back. back selected.
|2023 Grind the Mocks Post-Combine Fallers|
|Name||Pos.||School||pre-mixed EDP||Post Harvest EDP||Difference|
|jalen carter||DT||Georgia||3,0 (3)||6,6 (6)||-3,6 (-3)|
|Kayshon Boutte||WR||LSU||45,7 (51)||82,0 (77)||-36,3 (-26)|
|myles murphy||ES||Clemson||9,0 (7)||16,0 (15)||-7,0 (-8)|